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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Yair Rodriguez won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1504

Elo1373

Yair RodriguezvsBJ PennUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · Sunday, January 15, 2017Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Yair Rodriguez won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:24

Style matchupYair Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsBJ Penn: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Yair Rodriguez wins(83.3%)

Actual result: Yair Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yair Rodriguez at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
BJ Penn is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Yair Rodriguez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
BJ Penn has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Yair Rodriguez

Red Corner

BJ Penn

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1504

Elo

1373

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yair Rodriguez

oldest →

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22

SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24

vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25

latest

BJ PennL5 streak

oldest →

vs Rory MacDonald · Dec 12

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14

vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17

SUBvs Ryan Hall · Dec 18

vs Clay Guida · May 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yair RodriguezMetricBJ Penn

4.65

Strikes / min

2.76

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

52%

Strike defense

56%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

1.19

59%

Takedown defense

74%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.87Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yair RodriguezBJ Penn

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)BJ Penn(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +131.2|Blue -131.2

Recent Form

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -762.0|Blue +762.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yair RodriguezTargetBJ Penn

By target zone

40% acc · 60%

Head

18% acc · 100%

79% acc · 27%

Body

78% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 62%

Distance

14% acc · 75%

71% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

44% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yair Rodriguez rounds

even

BJ Penn rounds

Round 1Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:19

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 111

Sig Strikes

4 / 22

48.5%

Sig Str %

18%

56 / 113

Total Strikes

7 / 27

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	BJ Penn	4 / 22	7 / 27	0 / 0
1	Yair Rodriguez	37 / 73	38 / 75	0 / 0
2	BJ Penn	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
2	Yair Rodriguez	18 / 38	18 / 38	0 / 0

Yair Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15

BJ Penn

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10