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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Yair Rodriguez won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1504
Yair Rodriguez
Elo1479
Andre Fili

Yair RodriguezvsAndre FiliUFC Prediction Result

UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · Saturday, April 23, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Yair Rodriguez won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:15

Style matchupYair Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsAndre Fili: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Yair Rodriguez wins(74.9%)

Actual result: Yair Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yair Rodriguez at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Yair Rodriguez
Red Corner
VS
Andre Fili
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
1504
Elo
1479
33
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yair Rodriguez
oldest →
W
KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23
L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23
L
SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24
W
vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25
latest
Andre FiliL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Cub Swanson · Jun 24
L
SUBvs Melquizael Costa · Feb 25
W
vs Christian Rodriguez · Aug 25
L
vs Jose Delgado · Mar 26
L
KOvs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yair RodriguezMetricAndre Fili
4.65
Strikes / min
3.88
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
4.34
52%
Strike defense
50%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
2.32
59%
Takedown defense
71%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.87Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1547 vs 1516Strikes47.3 vs 31.6Takedowns1.7 vs 2.0Sub Atts2.33 vs 0.20Form1.0 vs 0.3
Yair RodriguezAndre Fili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)Andre Fili(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +24.6|Blue -24.6
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yair RodriguezTargetAndre Fili

By target zone

11
30% acc · 44%
Head
6
25% acc · 55%
7
78% acc · 28%
Body
4
80% acc · 36%
7
100% acc · 28%
Leg
1
50% acc · 9%

By position

16
43% acc · 64%
Distance
9
33% acc · 82%
0
Clinch
0
9
56% acc · 36%
Ground
2
50% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Yair Rodriguez rounds
0
even
0
Andre Fili rounds
Round 1Yair Rodriguez edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control3:02
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 2Yair Rodriguez edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control0:53
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:06Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
25 / 53
Sig Strikes
11 / 31
46%
Sig Str %
34%
39 / 68
Total Strikes
20 / 40
2 / 2
TDs
1 / 2
100%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:55
Ctrl Time
0:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Andre Fili8 / 2114 / 270 / 10
1Yair Rodriguez17 / 3426 / 441 / 10
2Andre Fili3 / 106 / 131 / 10
2Yair Rodriguez8 / 1913 / 241 / 10

Yair Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights15

Andre Fili

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights26