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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Yair Rodriguez won · S-DEC R5

Elo1504

Elo1500

Yair RodriguezvsAlex CaceresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · Saturday, August 6, 2016Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Yair Rodriguez won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupYair Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsAlex Caceres: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Yair Rodriguez wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Yair Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yair Rodriguez at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Caceres has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Yair Rodriguez

Red Corner

Alex Caceres

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+275

(27%)

1504

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yair Rodriguez

oldest →

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22

SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24

vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25

latest

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yair RodriguezMetricAlex Caceres

4.65

Strikes / min

4.21

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

52%

Strike defense

62%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.54

59%

Takedown defense

64%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.87evenly matched on net striking+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yair RodriguezAlex Caceres

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)Alex Caceres(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.1|Blue -4.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yair RodriguezTargetAlex Caceres

By target zone

24% acc · 53%

Head

27% acc · 74%

65% acc · 14%

Body

64% acc · 15%

89% acc · 33%

Leg

58% acc · 11%

By position

106

34% acc · 88%

Distance

30% acc · 92%

75% acc · 5%

Clinch

57% acc · 6%

53% acc · 7%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yair Rodriguez rounds

even

Alex Caceres rounds

Round 1Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:16

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:07

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 4Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control0:09

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

120 / 338

Sig Strikes

62 / 196

35%

Sig Str %

30.2%

124 / 343

Total Strikes

65 / 202

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:32

Ctrl Time

1:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Caceres	8 / 26	8 / 26	0 / 0
1	Yair Rodriguez	16 / 58	16 / 59	0 / 1
2	Alex Caceres	6 / 29	6 / 29	0 / 0
2	Yair Rodriguez	23 / 62	23 / 62	0 / 0
3	Alex Caceres	12 / 34	14 / 39	0 / 0
3	Yair Rodriguez	27 / 72	27 / 72	0 / 0
4	Yair Rodriguez	25 / 61	25 / 61	0 / 0
4	Alex Caceres	14 / 53	14 / 53	0 / 0
5	Alex Caceres	22 / 54	23 / 55	1 / 1
5	Yair Rodriguez	29 / 85	33 / 89	1 / 1

Yair Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29