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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Yadier del Valle won · SUB R1

Elo1513

Elo1465

Yadier del VallevsConnor MatthewsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · Saturday, May 17, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Yadier del Valle won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:54

Style matchupYadier del Valle: Submission grapplervsConnor Matthews: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Yadier del Valle wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Yadier del Valle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yadier del Valle at -620 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yadier del Valle threatens submissions; Connor Matthews has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Connor Matthews (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Yadier del Valle

Red Corner

Connor Matthews

Blue Corner

-620

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+460

(18%)

1513

Elo

1465

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yadier del Valle

oldest →

SUBvs Isaac Dulgarian · Nov 25

vs Jordan Leavitt · Feb 26

latest

Connor MatthewsL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dennis Buzukja · Mar 24

KOvs Jose Delgado · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yadier del ValleMetricConnor Matthews

4.05

Strikes / min

4.82

2.16

Strikes absorbed / min

6.06

55%

Strike defense

55%

1.23

TDs / 15 min

3.24

58%

Takedown defense

46%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.89Δ 3.13 — meaningful gap-1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yadier del ValleConnor Matthews

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yadier del Valle(3 fights)Connor Matthews(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +47.5|Blue -47.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yadier del ValleTargetConnor Matthews

By target zone

67% acc · 44%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 11%

Body

0% acc

80% acc · 44%

Leg

75% acc · 100%

By position

75% acc · 67%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

Clinch

75% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yadier del Valle rounds

even

Connor Matthews rounds

Round 1Yadier del Valle edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:21

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 12

Sig Strikes

3 / 10

75%

Sig Str %

30%

28 / 34

Total Strikes

3 / 10

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:21

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Connor Matthews	3 / 10	3 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Yadier del Valle	9 / 12	28 / 34	1 / 1	1

Yadier del Valle

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3

Connor Matthews

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3