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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
SuYoung You won · U-DEC R3
Elo1472
Xiao Long
Elo1511

Xiao LongvsSuYoung YouUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Saturday, August 23, 2025Shanghai, Hebei, China

Official fight result

SuYoung You won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupXiao Long: Pressure fightervsSuYoung You: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: SuYoung You wins(79.9%)

Actual result: SuYoung You wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

SuYoung You at -136 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • SuYoung You has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Xiao Long has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Xiao Long has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Xiao Long
Red Corner
VS
SuYoung You
Blue Corner
+118
(46%)
Vegas Odds
-136
(58%)
1472
Elo
1511
28
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'6"
177.8 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Xiao Long
oldest →
L
vs ChangHo Lee · Jun 24
W
KOvs Quang Le · Nov 24
L
vs Cody Garbrandt · Mar 26
latest
SuYoung You
oldest →
W
vs Baergeng Jieleyisi · Nov 24
W
vs AJ Cunningham · Mar 25
L
SUBvs Elijah Smith · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Xiao LongMetricSuYoung You
5.06
Strikes / min
2.15
3.85
Strikes absorbed / min
2.01
50%
Strike defense
68%
0.74
TDs / 15 min
4.26
82%
Takedown defense
66%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.21Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap+0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1531Strikes5.1 vs 2.1Takedowns0.7 vs 4.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.40Form0.2 vs 1.0
Xiao LongSuYoung You

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601483150515281550← oldermost recent →
Xiao Long(4 fights)SuYoung You(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -38.8|Blue +38.8
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Xiao LongTargetSuYoung You

By target zone

53
31% acc · 78%
Head
44
47% acc · 76%
7
33% acc · 10%
Body
10
91% acc · 17%
8
33% acc · 12%
Leg
4
80% acc · 7%

By position

38
22% acc · 56%
Distance
47
49% acc · 81%
30
73% acc · 44%
Clinch
11
73% acc · 19%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Xiao Long rounds
1
even
1
SuYoung You rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2SuYoung You edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 3Xiao Long edged it
Sig. strikes41
Takedowns0
Control0:20
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
68 / 214
Sig Strikes
58 / 110
30.3%
Sig Str %
55.7%
81 / 229
Total Strikes
66 / 120
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 6
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:20
Ctrl Time
0:07

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1SuYoung You10 / 1512 / 170 / 20
1Xiao Long11 / 3511 / 350 / 00
2SuYoung You25 / 5025 / 520 / 30
2Xiao Long16 / 7818 / 800 / 00
3SuYoung You23 / 4529 / 510 / 10
3Xiao Long41 / 10152 / 1140 / 00

Xiao Long

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4

SuYoung You

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights4