Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Bantamweight
3 Rounds
ChangHo Lee won · S-DEC R3
Elo1472
Xiao Long
Elo1504

Xiao LongvsChangHo LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Saturday, June 22, 2024Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

ChangHo Lee won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupXiao Long: Pressure fightervsChangHo Lee: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: ChangHo Lee wins(62.0%)

Actual result: ChangHo Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

ChangHo Lee at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Xiao Long has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Xiao Long has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Xiao Long
Red Corner
VS
ChangHo Lee
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
1472
Elo
1504
28
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Xiao LongL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Quang Le · Nov 24
L
vs SuYoung You · Aug 25
L
vs Cody Garbrandt · Mar 26
latest
ChangHo Lee
oldest →
W
KOvs Cortavious Romious · Apr 25
L
vs Timmy Cuamba · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Xiao LongMetricChangHo Lee
5.06
Strikes / min
3.88
3.85
Strikes absorbed / min
2.13
50%
Strike defense
37%
0.74
TDs / 15 min
3.20
82%
Takedown defense
40%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.21evenly matched on net striking+1.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes5.0 vs 4.9Takedowns1.0 vs 3.2Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Xiao LongChangHo Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601478149515131530← oldermost recent →
Xiao Long(4 fights)ChangHo Lee(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -32.0|Blue +32.0
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Xiao LongTargetChangHo Lee

By target zone

27
55% acc · 40%
Head
28
60% acc · 33%
33
72% acc · 49%
Body
54
79% acc · 64%
8
100% acc · 12%
Leg
2
50% acc · 2%

By position

26
59% acc · 38%
Distance
18
55% acc · 21%
42
71% acc · 62%
Clinch
66
77% acc · 79%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Xiao Long rounds
0
even
2
ChangHo Lee rounds
Round 1Xiao Long edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control2:41
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Round 2ChangHo Lee edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control1:46
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 3ChangHo Lee edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control1:52
22Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:29Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
68 / 103
Sig Strikes
84 / 119
70.3%
Sig Str %
70.7%
135 / 187
Total Strikes
173 / 228
2 / 5
TDs
2 / 9
50%
TD %
16.7%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
6:19
Ctrl Time
1:48

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1ChangHo Lee24 / 3850 / 660 / 40
1Xiao Long22 / 3043 / 601 / 10
2ChangHo Lee38 / 5371 / 950 / 10
2Xiao Long28 / 5253 / 810 / 20
3ChangHo Lee22 / 2852 / 672 / 40
3Xiao Long18 / 2139 / 461 / 20

Xiao Long

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4

ChangHo Lee

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights3