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Flyweight

3 Rounds

John Moraga won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Wilson ReisvsJohn MoragaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Saturday, April 14, 2018Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

John Moraga won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: John Moraga wins(57.6%)

Actual result: John Moraga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Moraga at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Wilson Reis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Wilson Reis

Red Corner

John Moraga

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Wilson Reis

oldest →

DECvs Ulka Sasaki · Feb 17

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Apr 17

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Sep 17

vs Ben Nguyen · Dec 18

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Apr 19

latest

John Moraga

oldest →

DECvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 16

vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17

vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17

KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Wilson ReisMetricJohn Moraga

1.83

Strikes / min

2.57

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

55%

Strike defense

56%

5.15

TDs / 15 min

0.62

47%

Takedown defense

44%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.21Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Wilson ReisJohn Moraga

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Wilson Reis(10 fights)John Moraga(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Wilson ReisTargetJohn Moraga

By target zone

12% acc · 50%

Head

41% acc · 65%

25% acc · 8%

Body

86% acc · 26%

100% acc · 42%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

20% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 74%

Clinch

86% acc · 13%

Ground

75% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Wilson Reis rounds

even

John Moraga rounds

Round 1John Moraga edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns3

Control1:34

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control2:20

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 3Wilson Reis edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns3

Control3:49

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 61

Sig Strikes

46 / 91

19.7%

Sig Str %

51.7%

61 / 127

Total Strikes

69 / 116

8 / 16

TDs

0 / 0

50.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:43

Ctrl Time

0:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	John Moraga	17 / 31	18 / 32	0 / 0	1
1	Wilson Reis	2 / 19	3 / 20	3 / 7	0
2	John Moraga	16 / 38	23 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Wilson Reis	6 / 28	14 / 43	2 / 4	0
3	John Moraga	13 / 22	28 / 39	0 / 0	0
3	Wilson Reis	4 / 14	44 / 64	3 / 5	0

Wilson Reis

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13

John Moraga

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14