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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Wilson Reis won · SUB R1

Elo1491

Wilson ReisvsHector SandovalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · Saturday, July 30, 2016Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Wilson Reis won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:49

Style matchupWilson Reis: WrestlervsHector Sandoval: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Wilson Reis wins(82.0%)

Actual result: Wilson Reis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Wilson Reis at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hector Sandoval has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Hector Sandoval has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Wilson Reis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Wilson Reis

Red Corner

Hector Sandoval

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'2"

165.1 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Wilson Reis

oldest →

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Apr 17

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Sep 17

vs John Moraga · Apr 18

vs Ben Nguyen · Dec 18

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Apr 19

latest

Hector Sandoval

oldest →

vs Fredy Serrano · Dec 16

KOvs Matt Schnell · Apr 17

KOvs Dustin Ortiz · Aug 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Wilson ReisMetricHector Sandoval

1.83

Strikes / min

3.31

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.33

55%

Strike defense

65%

5.15

TDs / 15 min

3.49

47%

Takedown defense

71%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.21Δ 2.19 — meaningful gap+0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Wilson ReisHector Sandoval

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Wilson Reis(10 fights)Hector Sandoval(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -48.5|Blue +48.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Wilson ReisTargetHector Sandoval

By target zone

43% acc · 75%

Head

27% acc · 60%

Body

100% acc · 20%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Wilson Reis rounds

even

Hector Sandoval rounds

Round 1Wilson Reis edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns3

Control1:04

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 8

Sig Strikes

5 / 13

50%

Sig Str %

38%

12 / 17

Total Strikes

8 / 16

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

60%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:04

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hector Sandoval	5 / 13	8 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Wilson Reis	4 / 8	12 / 17	3 / 5	1

Wilson Reis

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13

Hector Sandoval

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights4