← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Wilson Reis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1369

Wilson ReisvsBen NguyenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, December 1, 2018Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Wilson Reis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupWilson Reis: WrestlervsBen Nguyen: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ben Nguyen wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Wilson Reis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ben Nguyen at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Wilson Reis enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Ben Nguyen has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ben Nguyen (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Wilson Reis

Red Corner

Ben Nguyen

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1491

Elo

1369

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'4"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Wilson ReisL4 streak

oldest →

DECvs Ulka Sasaki · Feb 17

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Apr 17

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Sep 17

vs John Moraga · Apr 18

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Apr 19

latest

Ben Nguyen

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Benoit · Nov 15

KOvs Louis Smolka · Jul 16

vs Geane Herrera · Nov 16

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Jun 17

SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Feb 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Wilson ReisMetricBen Nguyen

1.83

Strikes / min

3.51

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

55%

Strike defense

59%

5.15

TDs / 15 min

0.25

47%

Takedown defense

63%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.21Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Wilson ReisBen Nguyen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Wilson Reis(10 fights)Ben Nguyen(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +122.4|Blue -122.4

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Wilson ReisTargetBen Nguyen

By target zone

20% acc · 56%

Head

32% acc · 79%

33% acc · 13%

Body

58% acc · 18%

83% acc · 31%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

27% acc · 94%

Distance

34% acc · 95%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

67% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Wilson Reis rounds

even

Ben Nguyen rounds

Round 1Wilson Reis edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns3

Control2:28

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Wilson Reis edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control2:27

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Wilson Reis edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control1:03

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 115

Sig Strikes

39 / 111

27.3%

Sig Str %

37.7%

41 / 126

Total Strikes

53 / 126

7 / 17

TDs

0 / 0

41%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:58

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ben Nguyen	12 / 23	21 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Wilson Reis	5 / 18	11 / 25	3 / 6	0
2	Ben Nguyen	11 / 35	14 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Wilson Reis	10 / 35	13 / 39	2 / 5	1
3	Ben Nguyen	16 / 53	18 / 55	0 / 0	0
3	Wilson Reis	17 / 62	17 / 62	2 / 6	0

Wilson Reis

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13

Ben Nguyen

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7