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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alexandre Pantoja won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1523

Wilson ReisvsAlexandre PantojaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · Saturday, April 13, 2019Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Alexandre Pantoja won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:58

Style matchupWilson Reis: WrestlervsAlexandre Pantoja: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandre Pantoja at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexandre Pantoja has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Wilson Reis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Wilson Reis

Red Corner

Alexandre Pantoja

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1491

Elo

1523

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Wilson Reis

oldest →

DECvs Ulka Sasaki · Feb 17

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Apr 17

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Sep 17

vs John Moraga · Apr 18

vs Ben Nguyen · Dec 18

latest

Alexandre Pantoja

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23

vs Steve Erceg · May 24

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24

SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Wilson ReisMetricAlexandre Pantoja

1.83

Strikes / min

4.38

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

55%

Strike defense

49%

5.15

TDs / 15 min

2.79

47%

Takedown defense

69%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.21Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Wilson ReisAlexandre Pantoja

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Wilson Reis(10 fights)Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.4|Blue +31.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Wilson ReisTargetAlexandre Pantoja

By target zone

0% acc

Head

68% acc · 83%

0% acc

Body

80% acc · 17%

100% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

17% acc · 100%

Distance

58% acc · 30%

Clinch

Ground

76% acc · 70%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Wilson Reis rounds

even

Alexandre Pantoja rounds

Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control0:47

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 6

Sig Strikes

23 / 33

16%

Sig Str %

69%

2 / 7

Total Strikes

26 / 36

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexandre Pantoja	23 / 33	26 / 36	0 / 0	0
1	Wilson Reis	1 / 6	2 / 7	1 / 4	0

Wilson Reis

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18