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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Matt Dwyer won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1354
Elo1356
Matt Dwyer

William PatolinovsMatt DwyerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · Sunday, February 22, 2015Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Official fight result

Matt Dwyer won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:14

Model Prediction: William Patolino wins(68.4%)

Actual result: Matt Dwyer wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

William Patolino at -410 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Matt Dwyer enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Matt Dwyer is a KO finisher (100% of wins). William Patolino has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

William Patolino
Red Corner
VS
Matt Dwyer
Blue Corner
-410
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+365
(22%)
1354
Elo
1356
23
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'4"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

William Patolino
oldest →
L
SUBvs Leonardo Santos · Jun 13
W
DECvs Bobby Voelker · Dec 13
L
KOvs Neil Magny · Oct 14
latest
Matt DwyerL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Albert Tumenov · Oct 14
L
vs Alan Jouban · Jul 15
L
vs Randy Brown · Jan 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

William PatolinoMetricMatt Dwyer
—
Strikes / min
2.57
—
Strikes absorbed / min
3.24
—
Strike defense
54%
—
TDs / 15 min
0.44
—
Takedown defense
60%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1482Strikes64.0 vs 0.0Takedowns1.7 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.5 vs -1.0
William PatolinoMatt Dwyer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
William Patolino(4 fights)Matt Dwyer(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.9|Blue +1.9
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +2.6|Blue -2.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

William Patolino

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights4

Matt Dwyer

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4