Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Maxim Grishin won · U-DEC R3

Elo1451

Elo1496

William KnightvsMaxim GrishinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Saturday, February 12, 2022Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Maxim Grishin won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: William Knight wins(73.8%)

Actual result: Maxim Grishin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

William Knight at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Maxim Grishin has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Maxim Grishin has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Maxim Grishin has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

William Knight

Red Corner

Maxim Grishin

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1451

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

William KnightL2 streak

oldest →

vs Da-Un Jung · Apr 21

KOvs Fabio Cherant · Aug 21

vs Alonzo Menifield · Dec 21

KOvs Devin Clark · Apr 22

vs Marcin Prachnio · Feb 23

latest

Maxim GrishinL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 20

KOvs Gadzhimurad Antigulov · Oct 20

vs Dustin Jacoby · Feb 21

vs Philipe Lins · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

William KnightMetricMaxim Grishin

2.62

Strikes / min

3.26

3.30

Strikes absorbed / min

2.27

35%

Strike defense

58%

1.78

TDs / 15 min

0.21

48%

Takedown defense

66%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68Δ 1.67 — meaningful gap+0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

William KnightMaxim Grishin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

William Knight(7 fights)Maxim Grishin(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -44.8|Blue +44.8

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -280.0|Blue +280.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

William KnightTargetMaxim Grishin

By target zone

23% acc · 43%

Head

50% acc · 23%

38% acc · 24%

Body

88% acc · 30%

44% acc · 33%

Leg

97% acc · 46%

By position

25% acc · 76%

Distance

77% acc · 90%

100% acc · 24%

Clinch

75% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

William Knight rounds

even

Maxim Grishin rounds

Round 1Maxim Grishin edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Maxim Grishin edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:44

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:09Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control1:53

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 68

Sig Strikes

69 / 89

31.7%

Sig Str %

76.3%

32 / 79

Total Strikes

88 / 112

3 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

32.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:37

Ctrl Time

2:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Maxim Grishin	27 / 33	27 / 33	0 / 0
1	William Knight	8 / 19	8 / 19	0 / 0
2	Maxim Grishin	25 / 32	31 / 39	0 / 0
2	William Knight	5 / 26	7 / 28	1 / 4
3	Maxim Grishin	17 / 24	30 / 40	0 / 0
3	William Knight	8 / 23	17 / 32	2 / 5

William Knight

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Maxim Grishin

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5