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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Marcin Prachnio won · U-DEC R3
Elo1451
Elo1489

William KnightvsMarcin PrachnioUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Saturday, February 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marcin Prachnio won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Marcin Prachnio wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Marcin Prachnio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Prachnio at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marcin Prachnio has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

William Knight
Red Corner
VS
Marcin Prachnio
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
1451
Elo
1489
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'3"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

William KnightL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Da-Un Jung · Apr 21
W
KOvs Fabio Cherant · Aug 21
W
vs Alonzo Menifield · Dec 21
L
vs Maxim Grishin · Feb 22
L
KOvs Devin Clark · Apr 22
latest
Marcin PrachnioL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Philipe Lins · Apr 22
L
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 23
W
vs Devin Clark · Feb 24
L
SUBvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jul 24
L
SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Jul 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

William KnightMetricMarcin Prachnio
2.62
Strikes / min
5.52
3.30
Strikes absorbed / min
3.15
35%
Strike defense
54%
1.78
TDs / 15 min
0.14
48%
Takedown defense
53%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.68Δ 3.05 — meaningful gap+2.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1503 vs 1473Strikes2.6 vs 5.6Takedowns1.8 vs 0.1Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.00Form-0.3 vs -0.3
William KnightMarcin Prachnio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
William Knight(7 fights)Marcin Prachnio(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -37.5|Blue +37.5
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

William KnightTargetMarcin Prachnio

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
9
25% acc · 11%
2
25% acc · 25%
Body
7
28% acc · 9%
6
50% acc · 75%
Leg
63
76% acc · 80%

By position

8
24% acc · 100%
Distance
79
55% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
William Knight rounds
0
even
3
Marcin Prachnio rounds
Round 1Marcin Prachnio edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Marcin Prachnio edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Marcin Prachnio edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
8 / 33
Sig Strikes
79 / 144
23.3%
Sig Str %
54.7%
8 / 33
Total Strikes
79 / 144
0 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Marcin Prachnio26 / 4826 / 480 / 00
1William Knight3 / 103 / 100 / 00
2Marcin Prachnio29 / 4929 / 490 / 00
2William Knight1 / 101 / 100 / 10
3Marcin Prachnio24 / 4724 / 470 / 00
3William Knight4 / 134 / 130 / 20

William Knight

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7

Marcin Prachnio

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights11