Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

William Knight won · U-DEC

Elo1451

Elo1469

William KnightvsAleksa CamurUFC Prediction Result

UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Saturday, September 26, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

William Knight won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Aleksa Camur wins(57.7%)

Actual result: William Knight wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksa Camur at -167 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

William Knight enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Aleksa Camur has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

William Knight

Red Corner

Aleksa Camur

Blue Corner

+134

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-167

(63%)

1451

Elo

1469

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

William KnightL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Fabio Cherant · Aug 21

vs Alonzo Menifield · Dec 21

vs Maxim Grishin · Feb 22

KOvs Devin Clark · Apr 22

vs Marcin Prachnio · Feb 23

latest

Aleksa CamurL2 streak

oldest →

vs Justin Ledet · Jan 20

vs Nicolae Negumereanu · Jun 21

vs Tanner Boser · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

William KnightMetricAleksa Camur

2.62

Strikes / min

4.73

3.30

Strikes absorbed / min

4.26

35%

Strike defense

54%

1.78

TDs / 15 min

0.46

48%

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.68Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap+0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

William KnightAleksa Camur

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

William Knight(7 fights)Aleksa Camur(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.8|Blue +17.8

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

William KnightTargetAleksa Camur

By target zone

73% acc · 76%

Head

44% acc · 47%

50% acc · 8%

Body

73% acc · 47%

75% acc · 16%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

42% acc · 26%

Distance

41% acc · 53%

100% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 47%

90% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

William Knight rounds

even

Aleksa Camur rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:48

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:34Control

Round 2William Knight edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control2:37

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 3William Knight edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control3:14

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 54

Sig Strikes

17 / 30

69.3%

Sig Str %

57.3%

58 / 77

Total Strikes

59 / 72

4 / 5

TDs

1 / 4

66.7%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

6:39

Ctrl Time

5:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Aleksa Camur	5 / 10	23 / 28	0 / 2	0
1	William Knight	9 / 15	12 / 19	0 / 1	0
2	Aleksa Camur	5 / 11	24 / 30	1 / 2	0
2	William Knight	16 / 21	21 / 26	2 / 2	1
3	Aleksa Camur	7 / 9	12 / 14	0 / 0	0
3	William Knight	13 / 18	25 / 32	2 / 2	0

William Knight

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Aleksa Camur

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4