← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Justin Scoggins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1366

Will CampuzanovsJustin ScogginsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · Saturday, March 15, 2014Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Justin Scoggins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Will Campuzano wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Justin Scoggins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Will Campuzano at +550 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Will Campuzano enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Justin Scoggins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Justin Scoggins has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Scoggins (53.5%).
Will Campuzano has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Will Campuzano

Red Corner

Justin Scoggins

Blue Corner

+550

(15%)

Vegas Odds

-675

(87%)

1353

Elo

1366

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Will CampuzanoL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Nick Pace · Dec 10

vs Chris Cariaso · Jan 11

vs Sergio Pettis · Nov 13

latest

Justin ScogginsL3 streak

oldest →

DECvs Joshua Sampo · May 15

vs Ray Borg · Feb 16

SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 16

SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · Jun 17

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Will CampuzanoMetricJustin Scoggins

2.43

Strikes / min

3.56

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

2.16

57%

Strike defense

55%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

3.42

48%

Takedown defense

82%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.39Δ 2.79 — meaningful gap+1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Will CampuzanoJustin Scoggins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Will Campuzano(4 fights)Justin Scoggins(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.4|Blue +13.4

Recent Form

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +20.0|Blue -20.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Will CampuzanoTargetJustin Scoggins

By target zone

8% acc · 75%

Head

57% acc · 82%

0% acc

Body

57% acc · 7%

25% acc · 25%

Leg

88% acc · 11%

By position

11% acc · 100%

Distance

38% acc · 30%

0% acc

Clinch

86% acc · 10%

0% acc

Ground

77% acc · 61%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Will Campuzano rounds

even

Justin Scoggins rounds

Round 1Justin Scoggins edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 2Justin Scoggins edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:07Control

Round 3Justin Scoggins edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 41

Sig Strikes

61 / 103

6.7%

Sig Str %

53.3%

28 / 70

Total Strikes

78 / 127

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 10

—

TD %

72%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

9:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Scoggins	21 / 36	27 / 43	3 / 6	0
1	Will Campuzano	2 / 19	9 / 26	0 / 0	0
2	Justin Scoggins	6 / 22	10 / 29	1 / 1	0
2	Will Campuzano	2 / 19	15 / 34	0 / 0	1
3	Justin Scoggins	34 / 45	41 / 55	2 / 3	0
3	Will Campuzano	0 / 3	4 / 10	0 / 0	0

Will Campuzano

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Justin Scoggins

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9