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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Chris Cariaso won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1355

Will CampuzanovsChris CariasoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 2 · Saturday, January 22, 2011Killeen, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Chris Cariaso won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Will Campuzano wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Chris Cariaso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Will Campuzano at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Will Campuzano enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
Will Campuzano has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Will Campuzano

Red Corner

Chris Cariaso

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1353

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'3"

177.8 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Will CampuzanoL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Nick Pace · Dec 10

vs Sergio Pettis · Nov 13

vs Justin Scoggins · Mar 14

latest

Chris CariasoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14

vs Louis Smolka · May 14

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Will CampuzanoMetricChris Cariaso

2.43

Strikes / min

3.35

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

57%

Strike defense

61%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

1.11

48%

Takedown defense

57%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.39Δ 2.51 — meaningful gap+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Will CampuzanoChris Cariaso

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Will Campuzano(4 fights)Chris Cariaso(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.5|Blue +2.5

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Will CampuzanoTargetChris Cariaso

By target zone

29% acc · 60%

Head

32% acc · 72%

77% acc · 37%

Body

87% acc · 19%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

75% acc · 9%

By position

37% acc · 87%

Distance

37% acc · 94%

67% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Will Campuzano rounds

even

Chris Cariaso rounds

Round 1Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Will Campuzano edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 158

Sig Strikes

67 / 173

40.7%

Sig Str %

38.7%

71 / 171

Total Strikes

69 / 175

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 4

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Cariaso	23 / 43	23 / 43	0 / 0
1	Will Campuzano	21 / 42	23 / 45	0 / 0
2	Chris Cariaso	12 / 47	13 / 48	0 / 1
2	Will Campuzano	22 / 49	25 / 54	0 / 0
3	Chris Cariaso	32 / 83	33 / 84	0 / 3
3	Will Campuzano	19 / 67	23 / 72	0 / 1

Will Campuzano

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Chris Cariaso

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13