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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Charles Oliveira won · SUB R1
Elo1363
Will Brooks
Elo1521

Will BrooksvsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2017Buffalo, New York, USA

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:30

Style matchupWill Brooks: WrestlervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Will Brooks wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Will Brooks at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Will Brooks has lost 67% of fights by sub.
  • Will Brooks has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Will Brooks
Red Corner
VS
Charles Oliveira
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
1363
Elo
1521
39
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Will BrooksL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Ross Pearson · Jul 16
L
KOvs Alex Oliveira · Oct 16
L
SUBvs Nik Lentz · Nov 17
latest
Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24
W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25
W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Will BrooksMetricCharles Oliveira
4.26
Strikes / min
3.23
2.54
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
56%
Strike defense
48%
2.08
TDs / 15 min
2.29
82%
Takedown defense
54%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
2.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.72Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1503 vs 1533Strikes48.0 vs 23.2Takedowns2.5 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.29Form-0.1 vs -0.5
Will BrooksCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Will Brooks(4 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -158.6|Blue +158.6
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Will BrooksTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

1
50% acc · 25%
Head
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 50%
Body
1
50% acc · 33%
1
100% acc · 25%
Leg
2
67% acc · 67%

By position

4
80% acc · 100%
Distance
2
33% acc · 67%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 33%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Will Brooks rounds
0
even
1
Charles Oliveira rounds
Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:41Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
4 / 5
Sig Strikes
3 / 7
80%
Sig Str %
42%
8 / 9
Total Strikes
3 / 7
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 2
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:41

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Charles Oliveira3 / 73 / 72 / 21
1Will Brooks4 / 58 / 90 / 00

Will Brooks

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights36