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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Waylon Lowe won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Waylon LowevsWillamy FreireUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 2 · Saturday, January 22, 2011Killeen, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Waylon Lowe won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Waylon Lowe wins(80.3%)

Actual result: Waylon Lowe wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Waylon Lowe at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Waylon Lowe (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Waylon Lowe

Red Corner

Willamy Freire

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

174 cm

Reach

178 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Waylon Lowe

oldest →

KOvs Melvin Guillard · May 10

vs Steve Lopez · Sep 10

SUBvs Nik Lentz · Mar 11

latest

Willamy FreireNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Waylon LoweMetricWillamy Freire

1.88

Strikes / min

1.53

2.40

Strikes absorbed / min

0.93

53%

Strike defense

62%

4.47

TDs / 15 min

0.50

83%

Takedown defense

73%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Waylon LoweWillamy Freire

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Waylon Lowe(4 fights)Willamy Freire(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Waylon LoweTargetWillamy Freire

By target zone

46% acc · 73%

Head

40% acc · 70%

100% acc · 27%

Body

60% acc · 13%

Leg

80% acc · 17%

By position

52% acc · 73%

Distance

21% acc · 30%

50% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

60% acc · 20%

Ground

93% acc · 61%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Waylon Lowe rounds

even

Willamy Freire rounds

Round 1Waylon Lowe edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control4:23

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Waylon Lowe edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control3:46

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Willamy Freire edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:28

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 28

Sig Strikes

23 / 50

53.3%

Sig Str %

32.7%

38 / 54

Total Strikes

67 / 98

4 / 8

TDs

1 / 1

63.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

9:37

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Willamy Freire	0 / 3	11 / 17	0 / 0
1	Waylon Lowe	4 / 7	16 / 21	1 / 1
2	Willamy Freire	6 / 12	22 / 29	0 / 0
2	Waylon Lowe	4 / 8	13 / 18	2 / 3
3	Willamy Freire	17 / 35	34 / 52	1 / 1
3	Waylon Lowe	7 / 13	9 / 15	1 / 4

Waylon Lowe

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights4

Willamy Freire

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach—

Fights1