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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nik Lentz won · SUB R3

Elo1490

Elo1395

Waylon LowevsNik LentzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · Saturday, March 26, 2011Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Nik Lentz won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:24

Style matchupWaylon Lowe: WrestlervsNik Lentz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(75.9%)

Actual result: Nik Lentz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Waylon Lowe has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Waylon Lowe (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Waylon Lowe

Red Corner

Nik Lentz

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1490

Elo

1395

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

174 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Waylon LoweW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Melvin Guillard · May 10

vs Steve Lopez · Sep 10

vs Willamy Freire · Jan 11

latest

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Waylon LoweMetricNik Lentz

1.88

Strikes / min

3.44

2.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

53%

Strike defense

50%

4.47

TDs / 15 min

3.30

83%

Takedown defense

43%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Waylon LoweNik Lentz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Waylon Lowe(4 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +95.3|Blue -95.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -3.4|Blue +3.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Waylon LoweTargetNik Lentz

By target zone

74% acc · 93%

Head

45% acc · 59%

100% acc · 7%

Body

87% acc · 25%

Leg

80% acc · 16%

By position

74% acc · 85%

Distance

52% acc · 82%

83% acc · 11%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Waylon Lowe rounds

even

Nik Lentz rounds

Round 1Waylon Lowe edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns3

Control2:34

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:49

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:08

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 61

Sig Strikes

51 / 91

74.3%

Sig Str %

51.7%

53 / 68

Total Strikes

73 / 114

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 3

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:31

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nik Lentz	6 / 21	15 / 30	0 / 1	0
1	Waylon Lowe	14 / 18	15 / 19	3 / 3	0
2	Nik Lentz	27 / 40	40 / 54	0 / 2	0
2	Waylon Lowe	20 / 23	26 / 29	1 / 2	1
3	Nik Lentz	18 / 30	18 / 30	0 / 0	1
3	Waylon Lowe	12 / 20	12 / 20	0 / 1	0

Waylon Lowe

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights4

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22