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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Warlley Alves won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1489

Elo1492

Warlley AlvesvsSultan AlievUFC Prediction Result

UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · Saturday, May 12, 2018Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Warlley Alves won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Warlley Alves wins(62.7%)

Actual result: Warlley Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Warlley Alves at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Sultan Aliev has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Warlley Alves

Red Corner

Sultan Aliev

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1489

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Warlley AlvesL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23

vs Abus Magomedov · May 24

latest

Sultan AlievW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kenny Robertson · Jan 15

vs Bojan Velickovic · Dec 16

vs Keita Nakamura · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Warlley AlvesMetricSultan Aliev

3.04

Strikes / min

1.41

3.95

Strikes absorbed / min

2.20

50%

Strike defense

56%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

1.76

62%

Takedown defense

100%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91evenly matched on net striking-0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Warlley AlvesSultan Aliev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Warlley Alves(10 fights)Sultan Aliev(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.3|Blue +2.3

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -308.0|Blue +308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Warlley AlvesTargetSultan Aliev

By target zone

35% acc · 24%

Head

42% acc · 83%

63% acc · 41%

Body

50% acc · 17%

91% acc · 34%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 34%

Distance

33% acc · 58%

86% acc · 66%

Clinch

71% acc · 42%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Warlley Alves rounds

even

Sultan Aliev rounds

Round 1Warlley Alves edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:58

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 2Warlley Alves edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:26

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 50

Sig Strikes

12 / 28

55.5%

Sig Str %

41.5%

54 / 78

Total Strikes

14 / 30

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

3:24

Ctrl Time

2:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sultan Aliev	8 / 17	9 / 18	1 / 2
1	Warlley Alves	21 / 28	32 / 41	0 / 1
2	Sultan Aliev	4 / 11	5 / 12	0 / 1
2	Warlley Alves	8 / 22	22 / 37	0 / 0

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Sultan Aliev

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4