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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Warlley Alves won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1489

Elo1378

Warlley AlvesvsSergio MoraesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · Saturday, May 11, 2019Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Warlley Alves won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:13

Model Prediction: Sergio Moraes wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Warlley Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergio Moraes at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Warlley Alves

Red Corner

Sergio Moraes

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1489

Elo

1378

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Warlley AlvesL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23

vs Abus Magomedov · May 24

latest

Sergio MoraesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Sep 17

vs Tim Means · Feb 18

SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19

KOvs James Krause · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Warlley AlvesMetricSergio Moraes

3.04

Strikes / min

2.42

3.95

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

50%

Strike defense

59%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

1.20

62%

Takedown defense

75%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91evenly matched on net striking-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Warlley AlvesSergio Moraes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Warlley Alves(10 fights)Sergio Moraes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +111.3|Blue -111.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +196.0|Blue -196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Warlley AlvesTargetSergio Moraes

By target zone

34% acc · 50%

Head

23% acc · 60%

71% acc · 14%

Body

78% acc · 35%

72% acc · 36%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

45% acc · 97%

Distance

32% acc · 95%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

33% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Warlley Alves rounds

even

Sergio Moraes rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Warlley Alves edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Warlley Alves edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 157

Sig Strikes

20 / 62

43%

Sig Str %

31.7%

72 / 157

Total Strikes

20 / 62

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sergio Moraes	9 / 21	9 / 21	0 / 0
1	Warlley Alves	10 / 31	10 / 31	0 / 0
2	Sergio Moraes	5 / 20	5 / 20	0 / 0
2	Warlley Alves	24 / 57	24 / 57	0 / 0
3	Sergio Moraes	6 / 21	6 / 21	0 / 0
3	Warlley Alves	38 / 69	38 / 69	0 / 0

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Sergio Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights13