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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Randy Brown won · SUB R2

Elo1489

Elo1498

Warlley AlvesvsRandy BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · Saturday, November 16, 2019Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Randy Brown won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:22

Style matchupWarlley Alves: Well-roundedvsRandy Brown: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Warlley Alves wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Randy Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Warlley Alves at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Randy Brown has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Warlley Alves

Red Corner

Randy Brown

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1489

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Warlley AlvesL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23

vs Abus Magomedov · May 24

latest

Randy BrownL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 24

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Apr 25

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 25

DECvs Kevin Holland · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Warlley AlvesMetricRandy Brown

3.04

Strikes / min

4.39

3.95

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

50%

Strike defense

53%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

0.71

62%

Takedown defense

74%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91Δ 1.95 — meaningful gap+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Warlley AlvesRandy Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Warlley Alves(10 fights)Randy Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.3|Blue +8.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Warlley AlvesTargetRandy Brown

By target zone

13% acc · 33%

Head

48% acc · 69%

Body

75% acc · 19%

67% acc · 67%

Leg

67% acc · 13%

By position

11% acc · 33%

Distance

50% acc · 56%

Clinch

60% acc · 19%

100% acc · 67%

Ground

57% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Warlley Alves rounds

even

Randy Brown rounds

Round 1Warlley Alves edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control3:34

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:12Control

Round 2Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control0:43

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 11

Sig Strikes

16 / 30

39%

Sig Str %

53%

8 / 18

Total Strikes

24 / 38

3 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:17

Ctrl Time

1:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Randy Brown	6 / 11	9 / 14	1 / 1	0
1	Warlley Alves	2 / 3	7 / 10	2 / 2	2
2	Randy Brown	10 / 19	15 / 24	0 / 0	1
2	Warlley Alves	1 / 8	1 / 8	1 / 1	0

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Randy Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21