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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Warlley Alves won · SUB R2

Elo1489

Elo1492

Warlley AlvesvsNordine TalebUFC Prediction Result

UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · Saturday, August 1, 2015Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Warlley Alves won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:11

Style matchupWarlley Alves: Well-roundedvsNordine Taleb: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Nordine Taleb wins(72.2%)

Actual result: Warlley Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nordine Taleb at +280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Nordine Taleb has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Warlley Alves

Red Corner

Nordine Taleb

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1489

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Warlley AlvesL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23

vs Abus Magomedov · May 24

latest

Nordine Taleb

oldest →

KOvs Danny Roberts · Dec 17

SUBvs Claudio Silva · May 18

KOvs Sean Strickland · Oct 18

vs Kyle Prepolec · May 19

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Warlley AlvesMetricNordine Taleb

3.04

Strikes / min

3.66

3.95

Strikes absorbed / min

2.62

50%

Strike defense

66%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

1.94

62%

Takedown defense

73%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91Δ 1.95 — meaningful gap+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Warlley AlvesNordine Taleb

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Warlley Alves(10 fights)Nordine Taleb(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.5|Blue +2.5

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Warlley AlvesTargetNordine Taleb

By target zone

31% acc · 53%

Head

35% acc · 47%

80% acc · 24%

Body

83% acc · 29%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

80% acc · 24%

By position

39% acc · 71%

Distance

46% acc · 76%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

67% acc · 24%

50% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Warlley Alves rounds

even

Nordine Taleb rounds

Round 1Warlley Alves edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:38

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Warlley Alves edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:40

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 38

Sig Strikes

17 / 34

48%

Sig Str %

50%

23 / 46

Total Strikes

30 / 47

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 2

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:18

Ctrl Time

1:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nordine Taleb	13 / 26	18 / 31	0 / 1	0
1	Warlley Alves	10 / 26	13 / 31	1 / 1	0
2	Nordine Taleb	4 / 8	12 / 16	0 / 1	0
2	Warlley Alves	7 / 12	10 / 15	1 / 2	1

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Nordine Taleb

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights12