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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Nicolas Dalby won · S-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1508

Warlley AlvesvsNicolas DalbyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Saturday, January 21, 2023Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Nicolas Dalby won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupWarlley Alves: Well-roundedvsNicolas Dalby: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Warlley Alves wins(56.7%)

Actual result: Nicolas Dalby wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Warlley Alves at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Warlley Alves enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Warlley Alves

Red Corner

Nicolas Dalby

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1489

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Warlley AlvesL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Randy Brown · Nov 19

KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23

vs Abus Magomedov · May 24

latest

Nicolas Dalby

oldest →

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24

KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25

vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Warlley AlvesMetricNicolas Dalby

3.04

Strikes / min

3.88

3.95

Strikes absorbed / min

3.51

50%

Strike defense

52%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

0.90

62%

Takedown defense

59%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Warlley AlvesNicolas Dalby

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Warlley Alves(10 fights)Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.9|Blue +18.9

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +392.0|Blue -392.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Warlley AlvesTargetNicolas Dalby

By target zone

38% acc · 68%

Head

38% acc · 63%

58% acc · 11%

Body

85% acc · 29%

93% acc · 21%

Leg

75% acc · 8%

By position

45% acc · 94%

Distance

41% acc · 72%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

91% acc · 27%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Warlley Alves rounds

even

Nicolas Dalby rounds

Round 1Nicolas Dalby edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:34

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:39Control

Round 2Nicolas Dalby edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:19

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 3Nicolas Dalby edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:16

53Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 144

Sig Strikes

119 / 248

46.7%

Sig Str %

47%

75 / 153

Total Strikes

167 / 298

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:09

Ctrl Time

4:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nicolas Dalby	35 / 74	51 / 91	0 / 0
1	Warlley Alves	18 / 35	25 / 42	0 / 0
2	Nicolas Dalby	31 / 73	52 / 95	0 / 1
2	Warlley Alves	18 / 37	20 / 39	1 / 2
3	Nicolas Dalby	53 / 101	64 / 112	0 / 0
3	Warlley Alves	30 / 72	30 / 72	0 / 1

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Nicolas Dalby

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14