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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Warlley Alves won · KO/TKO

Elo1489

Elo1496

Warlley AlvesvsMounir LazzezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · Wednesday, January 20, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Warlley Alves won

KO/TKO

Style matchupWarlley Alves: Well-roundedvsMounir Lazzez: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Mounir Lazzez wins(75.3%)

Actual result: Warlley Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mounir Lazzez at -230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Warlley Alves enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Mounir Lazzez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Warlley Alves

Red Corner

Mounir Lazzez

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1489

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Warlley AlvesL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Randy Brown · Nov 19

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23

vs Abus Magomedov · May 24

latest

Mounir Lazzez

oldest →

vs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Jul 20

vs Ange Loosa · Apr 22

SUBvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jan 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Warlley AlvesMetricMounir Lazzez

3.04

Strikes / min

7.49

3.95

Strikes absorbed / min

5.42

50%

Strike defense

53%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

1.80

62%

Takedown defense

71%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91Δ 2.98 — meaningful gap+2.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Warlley AlvesMounir Lazzez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Warlley Alves(10 fights)Mounir Lazzez(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.4|Blue +6.4

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +242.0|Blue -242.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Warlley AlvesTargetMounir Lazzez

By target zone

75% acc · 53%

Head

100% acc · 50%

88% acc · 41%

Body

100% acc · 50%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

78% acc · 41%

Distance

67% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 100%

100% acc · 35%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Warlley Alves rounds

even

Mounir Lazzez rounds

Round 1Warlley Alves edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:36

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 21

Sig Strikes

2 / 2

80%

Sig Str %

100%

24 / 30

Total Strikes

2 / 2

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:36

Ctrl Time

0:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mounir Lazzez	2 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 0	0
1	Warlley Alves	17 / 21	24 / 30	1 / 1	0

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Mounir Lazzez

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4