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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kamaru Usman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1489

Warlley AlvesvsKamaru UsmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Saturday, November 19, 2016Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Kamaru Usman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupWarlley Alves: Well-roundedvsKamaru Usman: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(84.6%)

Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Kamaru Usman has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).
Kamaru Usman has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Warlley Alves

Red Corner

Kamaru Usman

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1489

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Warlley AlvesL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23

vs Abus Magomedov · May 24

latest

Kamaru Usman

oldest →

KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23

vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25

DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Warlley AlvesMetricKamaru Usman

3.04

Strikes / min

4.16

3.95

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

50%

Strike defense

55%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

2.79

62%

Takedown defense

89%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91Δ 2.40 — meaningful gap+1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Warlley AlvesKamaru Usman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Warlley Alves(10 fights)Kamaru Usman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Warlley AlvesTargetKamaru Usman

By target zone

20% acc · 44%

Head

46% acc · 82%

75% acc · 36%

Body

55% acc · 15%

83% acc · 20%

Leg

67% acc · 3%

By position

33% acc · 92%

Distance

48% acc · 83%

67% acc · 8%

Clinch

60% acc · 4%

Ground

41% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Warlley Alves rounds

even

Kamaru Usman rounds

Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:40Control

Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 73

Sig Strikes

71 / 150

28.7%

Sig Str %

46.7%

26 / 74

Total Strikes

129 / 216

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

5:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kamaru Usman	20 / 51	20 / 51	0 / 0	0
1	Warlley Alves	14 / 38	14 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Kamaru Usman	21 / 43	45 / 69	0 / 1	0
2	Warlley Alves	10 / 25	11 / 26	0 / 0	0
3	Kamaru Usman	30 / 56	64 / 96	1 / 1	1
3	Warlley Alves	1 / 10	1 / 10	0 / 0	1

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20