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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jeremiah Wells won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1489

Elo1512

Warlley AlvesvsJeremiah WellsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Saturday, June 26, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jeremiah Wells won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:30

Style matchupWarlley Alves: Well-roundedvsJeremiah Wells: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Warlley Alves wins(77.2%)

Actual result: Jeremiah Wells wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Warlley Alves at -240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Warlley Alves enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Jeremiah Wells (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Warlley Alves

Red Corner

Jeremiah Wells

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+187

(35%)

1489

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Warlley AlvesL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Randy Brown · Nov 19

KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23

vs Abus Magomedov · May 24

latest

Jeremiah Wells

oldest →

KOvs Court McGee · Jun 22

vs Matthew Semelsberger · Apr 23

SUBvs Carlston Harris · Aug 23

vs Max Griffin · Feb 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Warlley AlvesMetricJeremiah Wells

3.04

Strikes / min

2.35

3.95

Strikes absorbed / min

1.28

50%

Strike defense

48%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

3.06

62%

Takedown defense

50%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap+1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Warlley AlvesJeremiah Wells

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Warlley Alves(10 fights)Jeremiah Wells(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.7|Blue +22.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -48.5|Blue +48.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Warlley AlvesTargetJeremiah Wells

By target zone

50% acc · 7%

Head

35% acc · 81%

100% acc · 47%

Body

100% acc · 19%

88% acc · 47%

Leg

By position

83% acc · 67%

Distance

33% acc · 57%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

Ground

56% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Warlley Alves rounds

even

Jeremiah Wells rounds

Round 1Jeremiah Wells edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:22

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:29Control

Round 2Jeremiah Wells edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 17

Sig Strikes

21 / 52

85.5%

Sig Str %

46%

15 / 17

Total Strikes

29 / 62

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

3:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jeremiah Wells	10 / 35	18 / 45	0 / 3	0
1	Warlley Alves	11 / 12	11 / 12	0 / 1	1
2	Jeremiah Wells	11 / 17	11 / 17	0 / 0	0
2	Warlley Alves	4 / 5	4 / 5	0 / 0	0

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Jeremiah Wells

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7