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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Warlley Alves won · SUB R1

Elo1489

Elo1491

Warlley AlvesvsColby CovingtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · Saturday, December 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Warlley Alves won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:26

Style matchupWarlley Alves: Well-roundedvsColby Covington: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Warlley Alves wins(59.5%)

Actual result: Warlley Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Warlley Alves at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Warlley Alves

Red Corner

Colby Covington

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1489

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Warlley AlvesL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23

vs Abus Magomedov · May 24

latest

Colby CovingtonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20

vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21

vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22

vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Warlley AlvesMetricColby Covington

3.04

Strikes / min

3.81

3.95

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

50%

Strike defense

54%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

3.64

62%

Takedown defense

68%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Warlley AlvesColby Covington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Warlley Alves(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Warlley AlvesTargetColby Covington

By target zone

0% acc

Head

100% acc · 100%

100% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

67% acc · 100%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

Ground

100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Warlley Alves rounds

even

Colby Covington rounds

Round 1Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 4

Sig Strikes

2 / 2

50%

Sig Str %

100%

2 / 4

Total Strikes

2 / 2

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Colby Covington	2 / 2	2 / 2	1 / 2	0
1	Warlley Alves	2 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 0	1

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17