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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Bryan Barberena won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1491

Warlley AlvesvsBryan BarberenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · Saturday, May 14, 2016Curitiba, Parana, Brazil

Official fight result

Bryan Barberena won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupWarlley Alves: Well-roundedvsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Warlley Alves wins(62.0%)

Actual result: Bryan Barberena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Warlley Alves at -600 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Warlley Alves

Red Corner

Bryan Barberena

Blue Corner

-600

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1489

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Warlley AlvesL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23

vs Abus Magomedov · May 24

latest

Bryan BarberenaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Warlley AlvesMetricBryan Barberena

3.04

Strikes / min

5.35

3.95

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

50%

Strike defense

44%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

0.13

62%

Takedown defense

50%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91Δ 1.67 — meaningful gap+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Warlley AlvesBryan Barberena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Warlley Alves(10 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Warlley AlvesTargetBryan Barberena

By target zone

50% acc · 66%

Head

45% acc · 70%

89% acc · 30%

Body

65% acc · 11%

75% acc · 4%

Leg

92% acc · 19%

By position

56% acc · 89%

Distance

49% acc · 75%

75% acc · 11%

Clinch

64% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Warlley Alves rounds

even

Bryan Barberena rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:26

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 2Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:10

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:40Control

Round 3Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:20

62Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 136

Sig Strikes

120 / 231

59.7%

Sig Str %

51.7%

82 / 139

Total Strikes

164 / 281

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:56

Ctrl Time

3:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bryan Barberena	21 / 41	45 / 69	0 / 0	0
1	Warlley Alves	18 / 27	19 / 28	0 / 0	1
2	Bryan Barberena	37 / 69	41 / 74	0 / 0	0
2	Warlley Alves	27 / 45	28 / 46	0 / 0	0
3	Bryan Barberena	62 / 121	78 / 138	0 / 1	0
3	Warlley Alves	34 / 64	35 / 65	0 / 2	0

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19