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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Warlley Alves won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1493

Warlley AlvesvsAlan JoubanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs Saint Preux · Saturday, November 8, 2014Uberlandia, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Warlley Alves won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupWarlley Alves: Well-roundedvsAlan Jouban: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alan Jouban wins(65.9%)

Actual result: Warlley Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Jouban at +340 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alan Jouban has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Alan Jouban (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Warlley Alves

Red Corner

Alan Jouban

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1489

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Warlley AlvesL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23

vs Abus Magomedov · May 24

latest

Alan Jouban

oldest →

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 17

KOvs Niko Price · Aug 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Feb 18

vs Dwight Grant · Apr 19

vs Jared Gooden · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Warlley AlvesMetricAlan Jouban

3.04

Strikes / min

5.67

3.95

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

50%

Strike defense

60%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

0.51

62%

Takedown defense

58%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91Δ 2.81 — meaningful gap+1.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Warlley AlvesAlan Jouban

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Warlley Alves(10 fights)Alan Jouban(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.7|Blue +3.7

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Warlley AlvesTargetAlan Jouban

By target zone

42% acc · 85%

Head

45% acc · 68%

67% acc · 13%

Body

64% acc · 18%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

79% acc · 14%

By position

38% acc · 66%

Distance

50% acc · 90%

44% acc · 9%

Clinch

62% acc · 10%

75% acc · 26%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Warlley Alves rounds

even

Alan Jouban rounds

Round 1Warlley Alves edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control2:07

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 2Warlley Alves edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:52

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alan Jouban edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:03

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 106

Sig Strikes

79 / 156

44.7%

Sig Str %

51.3%

51 / 111

Total Strikes

96 / 173

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:02

Ctrl Time

0:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alan Jouban	19 / 30	22 / 33	0 / 0	0
1	Warlley Alves	18 / 36	19 / 37	0 / 0	1
2	Alan Jouban	15 / 36	27 / 48	0 / 0	0
2	Warlley Alves	11 / 24	14 / 28	1 / 1	0
3	Alan Jouban	45 / 90	47 / 92	0 / 0	0
3	Warlley Alves	18 / 46	18 / 46	0 / 0	0

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16

Alan Jouban

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13