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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Wang Guan won · S-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1500

Wang GuanvsAlex CaceresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · Saturday, November 25, 2017Shanghai, Hebei, China

Official fight result

Wang Guan won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupWang Guan: StrikervsAlex Caceres: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Wang Guan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Caceres has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Wang Guan

Red Corner

Alex Caceres

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1491

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Wang GuanNo prior UFC fights on record.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Wang GuanMetricAlex Caceres

4.73

Strikes / min

4.21

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

60%

Strike defense

62%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.54

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.46evenly matched on net striking+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Wang GuanAlex Caceres

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Wang Guan(1 fights)Alex Caceres(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.8|Blue +8.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +47.6|Blue -47.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Wang GuanTargetAlex Caceres

By target zone

28% acc · 42%

Head

24% acc · 45%

55% acc · 15%

Body

88% acc · 43%

79% acc · 42%

Leg

75% acc · 12%

By position

41% acc · 86%

Distance

37% acc · 88%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

75% acc · 12%

67% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Wang Guan rounds

even

Alex Caceres rounds

Round 1Wang Guan edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:12

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Wang Guan edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:01

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:10

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 164

Sig Strikes

49 / 123

42%

Sig Str %

39%

75 / 169

Total Strikes

49 / 124

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Caceres	16 / 37	16 / 37	0 / 0
1	Wang Guan	33 / 69	37 / 74	0 / 1
2	Alex Caceres	10 / 30	10 / 30	0 / 0
2	Wang Guan	21 / 48	21 / 48	0 / 1
3	Alex Caceres	23 / 56	23 / 57	0 / 0
3	Wang Guan	17 / 47	17 / 47	0 / 1

Wang Guan

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights1

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29