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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Tybura won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1402

Elo1495

Walt HarrisvsMarcin TyburaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Saturday, June 5, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marcin Tybura won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:06

Style matchupWalt Harris: StrikervsMarcin Tybura: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Marcin Tybura wins(77.0%)

Actual result: Marcin Tybura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Tybura at -177 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Walt Harris is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Marcin Tybura has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Walt Harris (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Walt Harris

Red Corner

Marcin Tybura

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-177

(64%)

1402

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Walt HarrisL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Spitz · Jun 18

KOvs Serghei Spivac · May 19

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 19

KOvs Alistair Overeem · May 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Oct 20

latest

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Walt HarrisMetricMarcin Tybura

3.05

Strikes / min

3.56

3.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

54%

Strike defense

55%

0.29

TDs / 15 min

1.30

70%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28evenly matched on net striking+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Walt HarrisMarcin Tybura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Walt Harris(10 fights)Marcin Tybura(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -93.8|Blue +93.8

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Walt HarrisTargetMarcin Tybura

By target zone

52% acc · 74%

Head

33% acc · 50%

86% acc · 26%

Body

50% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

54% acc · 83%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

80% acc · 17%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Walt Harris rounds

even

Marcin Tybura rounds

Round 1Walt Harris edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:06

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:18Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 40

Sig Strikes

4 / 10

57%

Sig Str %

40%

23 / 41

Total Strikes

59 / 71

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

2:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcin Tybura	4 / 10	59 / 71	1 / 2	0
1	Walt Harris	23 / 40	23 / 41	0 / 0	0

Walt Harris

StanceSouthpaw

Height77.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights15

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24