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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Walt Harris won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1402

Elo1459

Walt HarrisvsChase ShermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · Sunday, January 15, 2017Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Walt Harris won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:41

Style matchupWalt Harris: StrikervsChase Sherman: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Chase Sherman wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Walt Harris wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chase Sherman at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Walt Harris enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chase Sherman is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Walt Harris has lost 56% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Walt Harris (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Walt Harris

Red Corner

Chase Sherman

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1402

Elo

1459

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Walt HarrisL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Serghei Spivac · May 19

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 19

KOvs Alistair Overeem · May 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Oct 20

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jun 21

latest

Chase ShermanL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jake Collier · Jan 22

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Apr 22

KOvs Jared Vanderaa · Jul 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Nov 22

vs Karl Williams · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Walt HarrisMetricChase Sherman

3.05

Strikes / min

6.04

3.33

Strikes absorbed / min

6.65

54%

Strike defense

52%

0.29

TDs / 15 min

0.09

70%

Takedown defense

74%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Walt HarrisChase Sherman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Walt Harris(10 fights)Chase Sherman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -57.1|Blue +57.1

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Walt HarrisTargetChase Sherman

By target zone

41% acc · 75%

Head

14% acc · 30%

46% acc · 19%

Body

60% acc · 45%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

83% acc · 25%

By position

43% acc · 91%

Distance

32% acc · 100%

25% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Walt Harris rounds

even

Chase Sherman rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Walt Harris edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 73

Sig Strikes

20 / 63

46%

Sig Str %

30.5%

33 / 74

Total Strikes

20 / 63

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chase Sherman	13 / 36	13 / 36	0 / 0
1	Walt Harris	14 / 43	15 / 44	0 / 0
2	Chase Sherman	7 / 27	7 / 27	0 / 0
2	Walt Harris	18 / 30	18 / 30	0 / 1

Walt Harris

StanceSouthpaw

Height77.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights15

Chase Sherman

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15