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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Yves Jabouin won · S-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1355

Walel WatsonvsYves JabouinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · Saturday, December 10, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Yves Jabouin won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Yves Jabouin wins(53.7%)

Actual result: Yves Jabouin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yves Jabouin at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Walel Watson is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Yves Jabouin has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Yves Jabouin has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Yves Jabouin has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Walel Watson has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Walel Watson

Red Corner

Yves Jabouin

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1352

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'7"

190.5 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Walel WatsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joseph Sandoval · Oct 11

vs TJ Dillashaw · Feb 12

SUBvs Mitch Gagnon · Sep 12

latest

Yves JabouinL2 streak

oldest →

vs Dustin Pague · Jun 13

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Jan 14

vs Mike Easton · Jun 14

KOvs Thomas Almeida · Apr 15

SUBvs Felipe Arantes · Aug 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Walel WatsonMetricYves Jabouin

2.10

Strikes / min

3.06

3.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.93

43%

Strike defense

62%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.94

61%

Takedown defense

82%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.69Δ 1.82 — meaningful gap+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Walel WatsonYves Jabouin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Walel Watson(4 fights)Yves Jabouin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.5|Blue +3.5

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Walel WatsonTargetYves Jabouin

By target zone

19% acc · 45%

Head

19% acc · 27%

50% acc · 23%

Body

45% acc · 15%

52% acc · 32%

Leg

59% acc · 58%

By position

26% acc · 87%

Distance

36% acc · 97%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Walel Watson rounds

even

Yves Jabouin rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:02

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 3Walel Watson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:13

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 163

Sig Strikes

33 / 90

28.3%

Sig Str %

35.3%

60 / 178

Total Strikes

33 / 90

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 6

TD %

41.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:15

Ctrl Time

1:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yves Jabouin	6 / 23	6 / 23	1 / 4	0
1	Walel Watson	12 / 56	15 / 60	0 / 1	0
2	Yves Jabouin	11 / 34	11 / 34	1 / 1	0
2	Walel Watson	15 / 47	15 / 47	0 / 0	1
3	Yves Jabouin	16 / 33	16 / 33	0 / 1	0
3	Walel Watson	20 / 60	30 / 71	0 / 0	1

Walel Watson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4

Yves Jabouin

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10