← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Walel Watson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1352

Elo1351

Walel WatsonvsJoseph SandovalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · Saturday, October 1, 2011Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

Walel Watson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:17

Model Prediction: Walel Watson wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Walel Watson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Walel Watson at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Walel Watson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Walel Watson is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Joseph Sandoval has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Joseph Sandoval has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Walel Watson has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Sandoval (53.5%).
Walel Watson has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Walel Watson

Red Corner

Joseph Sandoval

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1352

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'7"

190.5 cm

Reach

168 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Walel WatsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Yves Jabouin · Dec 11

vs TJ Dillashaw · Feb 12

SUBvs Mitch Gagnon · Sep 12

latest

Joseph Sandoval

oldest →

KOvs Nick Denis · Jan 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Walel WatsonMetricJoseph Sandoval

2.10

Strikes / min

1.82

3.79

Strikes absorbed / min

12.12

43%

Strike defense

60%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

61%

Takedown defense

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.69Δ 8.61 — meaningful gap-10.30

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Walel Watson(4 fights)Joseph Sandoval(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Walel WatsonTargetJoseph Sandoval

By target zone

25% acc · 67%

Head

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

31% acc · 89%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Walel Watson rounds

even

Joseph Sandoval rounds

Round 1Walel Watson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns2

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 28

Sig Strikes

0 / 3

32%

Sig Str %

9 / 28

Total Strikes

0 / 3

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joseph Sandoval	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 0	0
1	Walel Watson	9 / 28	9 / 28	0 / 0	0

Walel Watson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4

Joseph Sandoval

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights2