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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Waldo Cortes Acosta won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1562

Elo1481

Waldo Cortes AcostavsDerrick LewisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Saturday, January 24, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Waldo Cortes Acosta won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:14

Model Prediction: Waldo Cortes Acosta wins(79.4%)

Actual result: Waldo Cortes Acosta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Waldo Cortes Acosta at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Waldo Cortes Acosta is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Waldo Cortes Acosta has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Waldo Cortes Acosta has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Red Corner

Derrick Lewis

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1562

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Waldo Cortes Acosta

oldest →

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 25

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Aug 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Nov 25

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Nov 25

DECvs Alexander Volkov · May 26

latest

Derrick Lewis

oldest →

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Jul 23

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Waldo Cortes AcostaMetricDerrick Lewis

5.34

Strikes / min

2.46

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

54%

Strike defense

39%

0.40

TDs / 15 min

0.55

73%

Takedown defense

52%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.71Δ 1.82 — meaningful gap-0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Waldo Cortes AcostaDerrick Lewis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Waldo Cortes Acosta(10 fights)Derrick Lewis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +80.2|Blue -80.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Waldo Cortes AcostaTargetDerrick Lewis

By target zone

66% acc · 80%

Head

16% acc · 75%

100% acc · 11%

Body

40% acc · 25%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

0% acc

By position

60% acc · 61%

Distance

19% acc · 100%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 36%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Waldo Cortes Acosta rounds

even

Derrick Lewis rounds

Round 1Waldo Cortes Acosta edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:16

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Waldo Cortes Acosta edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:12

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 62

Sig Strikes

8 / 43

72%

Sig Str %

18.5%

46 / 64

Total Strikes

8 / 43

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Derrick Lewis	4 / 22	4 / 22	0 / 0
1	Waldo Cortes Acosta	12 / 16	14 / 18	1 / 1
2	Derrick Lewis	4 / 21	4 / 21	0 / 0
2	Waldo Cortes Acosta	32 / 46	32 / 46	0 / 0

Waldo Cortes Acosta

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31