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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Colby Covington won · SUB R3

Elo1354

Elo1491

Wagner SilvavsColby CovingtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs Saint Preux · Saturday, November 8, 2014Uberlandia, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Colby Covington won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:26

Model Prediction: Colby Covington wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colby Covington at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Wagner Silva has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Wagner Silva

Red Corner

Colby Covington

Blue Corner

+435

(19%)

Vegas Odds

-500

(83%)

1354

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Wagner Silva

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Abreu · May 14

latest

Colby CovingtonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20

vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21

vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22

vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Wagner SilvaMetricColby Covington

1.69

Strikes / min

3.81

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

65%

Strike defense

54%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.64

58%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.18Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Wagner SilvaColby Covington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Wagner Silva(2 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.4|Blue +137.4

Recent Form

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Wagner SilvaTargetColby Covington

By target zone

17% acc · 50%

Head

30% acc · 57%

44% acc · 25%

Body

47% acc · 30%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

23% acc · 81%

Distance

28% acc · 57%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

63% acc · 22%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

71% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Wagner Silva rounds

even

Colby Covington rounds

Round 1Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:02

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:52Control

Round 2Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:19Control

Round 3Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 59

Sig Strikes

23 / 62

26.7%

Sig Str %

38%

23 / 66

Total Strikes

97 / 155

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 12

—

TD %

59.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

8:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Colby Covington	12 / 33	16 / 41	2 / 4	0
1	Wagner Silva	8 / 31	13 / 36	0 / 0	0
2	Colby Covington	8 / 22	31 / 50	2 / 7	0
2	Wagner Silva	6 / 20	7 / 21	0 / 0	0
3	Colby Covington	3 / 7	50 / 64	1 / 1	1
3	Wagner Silva	2 / 8	3 / 9	0 / 0	0

Wagner Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17