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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ildemar Alcantara won · SUB R2
Elo1352
Wagner Prado
Elo1490
Ildemar Alcantara

Wagner PradovsIldemar AlcantaraUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping · Saturday, January 19, 2013Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Ildemar Alcantara won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:39

Model Prediction: Wagner Prado wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Ildemar Alcantara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Wagner Prado at -215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ildemar Alcantara has 59pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Wagner Prado (53.5%).
  • Ildemar Alcantara has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Wagner Prado
Red Corner
VS
Ildemar Alcantara
Blue Corner
-215
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
1352
Elo
1490
39
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Wagner Prado
oldest →
L
SUBvs Phil Davis · Oct 12
latest
Ildemar Alcantara
oldest →
L
vs Igor Araujo · Oct 13
W
vs Albert Tumenov · Feb 14
L
vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 14
W
vs Richardson Moreira · Jan 15
L
vs Kevin Casey · Jul 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Wagner PradoMetricIldemar Alcantara
1.72
Strikes / min
1.93
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
2.63
50%
Strike defense
50%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
2.00
22%
Takedown defense
81%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.34evenly matched on net striking-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1486 vs 1500Strikes2.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Wagner PradoIldemar Alcantara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Wagner Prado(2 fights)Ildemar Alcantara(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.5|Blue +138.5
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Wagner PradoTargetIldemar Alcantara

By target zone

14
47% acc · 50%
Head
10
28% acc · 42%
14
64% acc · 50%
Body
12
71% acc · 50%
0
0% acc
Leg
2
100% acc · 8%

By position

25
52% acc · 89%
Distance
22
42% acc · 92%
3
100% acc · 11%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 8%
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Wagner Prado rounds
1
even
1
Ildemar Alcantara rounds
Round 1Ildemar Alcantara edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:57Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control1:13
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:28Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
28 / 53
Sig Strikes
24 / 55
47.5%
Sig Str %
35.5%
41 / 70
Total Strikes
39 / 70
0 / 1
TDs
2 / 3
0%
TD %
75%
0
Sub Att
3
1
Rev
0
1:13
Ctrl Time
1:25

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ildemar Alcantara22 / 4735 / 601 / 20
1Wagner Prado24 / 4324 / 430 / 10
2Ildemar Alcantara2 / 84 / 101 / 13
2Wagner Prado4 / 1017 / 270 / 00

Wagner Prado

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2

Ildemar Alcantara

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights7