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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Nikita Krylov won · U-DEC R3
Elo1515
Volkan Oezdemir
Elo1485
Nikita Krylov editorial illustration

Volkan OezdemirvsNikita KrylovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Saturday, October 22, 2022Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Nikita Krylov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVolkan Oezdemir: Pressure fightervsNikita Krylov: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Nikita Krylov wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Nikita Krylov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nikita Krylov at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Volkan Oezdemir has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Volkan Oezdemir
Red Corner
VS
Nikita Krylov
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-190
(66%)
1515
Elo
1485
36
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Volkan Oezdemir
oldest →
W
vs Paul Craig · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Bogdan Guskov · Sep 23
W
KOvs Johnny Walker · Jun 24
L
vs Carlos Ulberg · Nov 24
W
KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Nov 25
latest
Nikita Krylov
oldest →
W
SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23
L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25
L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25
W
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26
L
KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Volkan OezdemirMetricNikita Krylov
4.99
Strikes / min
4.36
4.19
Strikes absorbed / min
2.59
55%
Strike defense
47%
0.50
TDs / 15 min
2.05
80%
Takedown defense
53%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80evenly matched on net striking+1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1532 vs 1537Strikes4.8 vs 4.4Takedowns0.6 vs 2.3Sub Atts0.10 vs 1.40Form0.3 vs 0.1
Volkan OezdemirNikita Krylov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Volkan Oezdemir(10 fights)Nikita Krylov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +30.0|Blue -30.0
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Volkan OezdemirTargetNikita Krylov

By target zone

35
49% acc · 83%
Head
42
42% acc · 74%
3
100% acc · 7%
Body
12
67% acc · 21%
4
67% acc · 10%
Leg
3
100% acc · 5%

By position

34
50% acc · 81%
Distance
38
41% acc · 67%
5
56% acc · 12%
Clinch
12
71% acc · 21%
3
75% acc · 7%
Ground
7
64% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Volkan Oezdemir rounds
0
even
3
Nikita Krylov rounds
Round 1Nikita Krylov edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns1
Control0:46
26Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:02Control
Round 2Nikita Krylov edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:01
11Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:28Control
Round 3Nikita Krylov edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:47Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
42 / 81
Sig Strikes
57 / 121
48.3%
Sig Str %
46.3%
108 / 157
Total Strikes
171 / 251
1 / 1
TDs
7 / 20
100%
TD %
35%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:47
Ctrl Time
9:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Nikita Krylov26 / 5831 / 642 / 71
1Volkan Oezdemir27 / 5046 / 721 / 10
2Nikita Krylov11 / 2754 / 783 / 80
2Volkan Oezdemir11 / 1842 / 550 / 00
3Nikita Krylov20 / 3686 / 1092 / 50
3Volkan Oezdemir4 / 1320 / 300 / 00

Volkan Oezdemir

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights16

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights23