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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Dominick Reyes won · S-DEC R3

Elo1515

Elo1522

Volkan OezdemirvsDominick ReyesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 16, 2019London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Dominick Reyes won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVolkan Oezdemir: Pressure fightervsDominick Reyes: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Dominick Reyes wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Dominick Reyes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dominick Reyes at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Volkan Oezdemir is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Dominick Reyes has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Dominick Reyes (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Volkan Oezdemir

Red Corner

Dominick Reyes

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1515

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Volkan Oezdemir

oldest →

vs Nikita Krylov · Oct 22

SUBvs Bogdan Guskov · Sep 23

KOvs Johnny Walker · Jun 24

vs Carlos Ulberg · Nov 24

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Nov 25

latest

Dominick Reyes

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Jun 24

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 24

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Apr 25

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Sep 25

DECvs Johnny Walker · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Volkan OezdemirMetricDominick Reyes

4.99

Strikes / min

4.99

4.19

Strikes absorbed / min

3.40

55%

Strike defense

49%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

0.25

80%

Takedown defense

82%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+1.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Volkan OezdemirDominick Reyes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Volkan Oezdemir(10 fights)Dominick Reyes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.7|Blue +6.7

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Volkan OezdemirTargetDominick Reyes

By target zone

30% acc · 69%

Head

20% acc · 36%

67% acc · 11%

Body

62% acc · 36%

58% acc · 20%

Leg

86% acc · 27%

By position

33% acc · 86%

Distance

35% acc · 93%

71% acc · 14%

Clinch

75% acc · 7%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Volkan Oezdemir rounds

even

Dominick Reyes rounds

Round 1Volkan Oezdemir edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:48

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dominick Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:07

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Dominick Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:40

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 99

Sig Strikes

44 / 121

36.7%

Sig Str %

36%

48 / 112

Total Strikes

47 / 124

1 / 7

TDs

0 / 2

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:35

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dominick Reyes	10 / 30	10 / 30	0 / 0
1	Volkan Oezdemir	12 / 41	16 / 45	1 / 1
2	Dominick Reyes	16 / 39	16 / 39	0 / 2
2	Volkan Oezdemir	12 / 35	14 / 37	0 / 3
3	Dominick Reyes	18 / 52	21 / 55	0 / 0
3	Volkan Oezdemir	11 / 23	18 / 30	0 / 3

Volkan Oezdemir

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights16

Dominick Reyes

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13