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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Ulberg won · U-DEC R3

Elo1515

Elo1573

Volkan OezdemirvsCarlos UlbergUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, November 23, 2024Macau, China

Official fight result

Carlos Ulberg won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVolkan Oezdemir: Pressure fightervsCarlos Ulberg: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Carlos Ulberg wins(75.0%)

Actual result: Carlos Ulberg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Ulberg at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Volkan Oezdemir enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Carlos Ulberg enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Volkan Oezdemir

Red Corner

Carlos Ulberg

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1515

Elo

1573

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Volkan OezdemirW3 streak

oldest →

vs Paul Craig · Jul 22

vs Nikita Krylov · Oct 22

SUBvs Bogdan Guskov · Sep 23

KOvs Johnny Walker · Jun 24

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Nov 25

latest

Carlos UlbergW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Da Woon Jung · Sep 23

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · May 24

vs Jan Blachowicz · Mar 25

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Sep 25

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Volkan OezdemirMetricCarlos Ulberg

4.99

Strikes / min

6.57

4.19

Strikes absorbed / min

4.03

55%

Strike defense

51%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

0.53

80%

Takedown defense

85%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap+2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Volkan OezdemirCarlos Ulberg

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Volkan Oezdemir(10 fights)Carlos Ulberg(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -57.3|Blue +57.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Volkan OezdemirTargetCarlos Ulberg

By target zone

39% acc · 53%

Head

45% acc · 83%

71% acc · 18%

Body

69% acc · 9%

100% acc · 29%

Leg

89% acc · 8%

By position

52% acc · 99%

Distance

48% acc · 100%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Volkan Oezdemir rounds

even

Carlos Ulberg rounds

Round 1Volkan Oezdemir edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Carlos Ulberg edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:03

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

96 / 183

Sig Strikes

98 / 204

52%

Sig Str %

47%

96 / 183

Total Strikes

98 / 204

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlos Ulberg	24 / 60	24 / 60	0 / 0
1	Volkan Oezdemir	29 / 51	29 / 51	0 / 0
2	Carlos Ulberg	29 / 60	29 / 60	0 / 0
2	Volkan Oezdemir	28 / 59	28 / 59	0 / 0
3	Carlos Ulberg	45 / 84	45 / 84	0 / 0
3	Volkan Oezdemir	39 / 73	39 / 73	0 / 2

Volkan Oezdemir

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights16

Carlos Ulberg

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights10