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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Volkan Oezdemir won · SUB R1

Elo1515

Elo1522

Volkan OezdemirvsBogdan GuskovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Saturday, September 2, 2023Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Volkan Oezdemir won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:46

Style matchupVolkan Oezdemir: Pressure fightervsBogdan Guskov: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Volkan Oezdemir wins(68.6%)

Actual result: Volkan Oezdemir wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Volkan Oezdemir at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Volkan Oezdemir has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Volkan Oezdemir has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Volkan Oezdemir

Red Corner

Bogdan Guskov

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1515

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Volkan Oezdemir

oldest →

vs Paul Craig · Jul 22

vs Nikita Krylov · Oct 22

KOvs Johnny Walker · Jun 24

vs Carlos Ulberg · Nov 24

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Nov 25

latest

Bogdan Guskov

oldest →

KOvs Ryan Spann · Apr 24

SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 25

vs Jan Blachowicz · Dec 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Volkan OezdemirMetricBogdan Guskov

4.99

Strikes / min

4.57

4.19

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

55%

Strike defense

44%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

0.00

80%

Takedown defense

57%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Volkan OezdemirBogdan Guskov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Volkan Oezdemir(10 fights)Bogdan Guskov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.8|Blue +6.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -48.5|Blue +48.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Volkan OezdemirTargetBogdan Guskov

By target zone

51% acc · 73%

Head

30% acc · 88%

50% acc · 4%

Body

100% acc · 13%

86% acc · 23%

Leg

0% acc

By position

47% acc · 58%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

0% acc

77% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Volkan Oezdemir rounds

even

Bogdan Guskov rounds

Round 1Volkan Oezdemir edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control1:23

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 46

Sig Strikes

8 / 25

56%

Sig Str %

32%

36 / 64

Total Strikes

10 / 27

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:23

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bogdan Guskov	8 / 25	10 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Volkan Oezdemir	26 / 46	36 / 64	1 / 1	1

Volkan Oezdemir

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights16

Bogdan Guskov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8