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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Anthony Smith won · SUB R3

Elo1515

Elo1485

Volkan OezdemirvsAnthony SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · Saturday, October 27, 2018Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada

Official fight result

Anthony Smith won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:26

Model Prediction: Volkan Oezdemir wins(61.7%)

Actual result: Anthony Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Volkan Oezdemir at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Volkan Oezdemir is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Anthony Smith has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Volkan Oezdemir has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Volkan Oezdemir has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Volkan Oezdemir

Red Corner

Anthony Smith

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1515

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Volkan Oezdemir

oldest →

vs Nikita Krylov · Oct 22

SUBvs Bogdan Guskov · Sep 23

KOvs Johnny Walker · Jun 24

vs Carlos Ulberg · Nov 24

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Nov 25

latest

Anthony SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Volkan OezdemirMetricAnthony Smith

4.99

Strikes / min

3.19

4.19

Strikes absorbed / min

5.04

55%

Strike defense

44%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

0.44

80%

Takedown defense

50%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80Δ 2.65 — meaningful gap-1.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Volkan OezdemirAnthony Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Volkan Oezdemir(10 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.3|Blue -30.3

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +183.0|Blue -183.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Volkan OezdemirTargetAnthony Smith

By target zone

42% acc · 62%

Head

47% acc · 65%

83% acc · 13%

Body

70% acc · 25%

86% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

45% acc · 58%

Distance

49% acc · 76%

56% acc · 12%

Clinch

78% acc · 22%

74% acc · 30%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Volkan Oezdemir rounds

even

Anthony Smith rounds

Round 1Volkan Oezdemir edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:11

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Volkan Oezdemir edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control3:44

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Anthony Smith edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:23Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 148

Sig Strikes

63 / 117

52.7%

Sig Str %

54%

103 / 175

Total Strikes

67 / 121

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

4:55

Ctrl Time

1:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Smith	26 / 49	28 / 51	0 / 2	0
1	Volkan Oezdemir	27 / 54	45 / 73	0 / 0	0
2	Anthony Smith	9 / 16	11 / 18	0 / 0	0
2	Volkan Oezdemir	30 / 43	37 / 50	1 / 1	0
3	Anthony Smith	28 / 52	28 / 52	1 / 1	2
3	Volkan Oezdemir	20 / 51	21 / 52	0 / 0	0

Volkan Oezdemir

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights16

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25