Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Vladimir Matyushenko won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1352

Elo1351

Vladimir MatyushenkovsJason BrilzUFC Prediction Result

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · Saturday, April 30, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Vladimir Matyushenko won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:20

Style matchupVladimir Matyushenko: WrestlervsJason Brilz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jason Brilz wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Vladimir Matyushenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Brilz at -108 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vladimir Matyushenko is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Jason Brilz has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Vladimir Matyushenko has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vladimir Matyushenko

Red Corner

Jason Brilz

Blue Corner

-102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-108

(52%)

1352

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vladimir MatyushenkoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Eliot Marshall · Mar 10

KOvs Jon Jones · Aug 10

KOvs Alexandre Ferreira · Nov 10

KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Dec 11

SUBvs Ryan Bader · Jan 13

latest

Jason BrilzL2 streak

oldest →

vs Eric Schafer · Mar 10

vs Rogerio Nogueira · May 10

KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vladimir MatyushenkoMetricJason Brilz

1.90

Strikes / min

2.66

1.62

Strikes absorbed / min

1.78

59%

Strike defense

65%

3.25

TDs / 15 min

2.37

70%

Takedown defense

25%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.28evenly matched on net striking+0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vladimir MatyushenkoJason Brilz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vladimir Matyushenko(6 fights)Jason Brilz(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -168.0|Blue +168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vladimir MatyushenkoTargetJason Brilz

By target zone

89% acc · 100%

Head

100% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

By position

83% acc · 63%

Distance

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vladimir Matyushenko rounds

even

Jason Brilz rounds

Round 1Vladimir Matyushenko edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 9

Sig Strikes

1 / 1

88%

Sig Str %

100%

8 / 9

Total Strikes

1 / 1

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jason Brilz	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0
1	Vladimir Matyushenko	8 / 9	8 / 9	0 / 0	0

Vladimir Matyushenko

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Jason Brilz

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4