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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Gustafsson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1352

Elo1430

Vladimir MatyushenkovsAlexander GustafssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · Friday, December 30, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Gustafsson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:13

Style matchupVladimir Matyushenko: WrestlervsAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Vladimir Matyushenko wins(65.9%)

Actual result: Alexander Gustafsson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vladimir Matyushenko at +300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alexander Gustafsson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Vladimir Matyushenko

Red Corner

Alexander Gustafsson

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-330

(77%)

1352

Elo

1430

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'5"

187.96 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vladimir Matyushenko

oldest →

vs Eliot Marshall · Mar 10

KOvs Jon Jones · Aug 10

KOvs Alexandre Ferreira · Nov 10

KOvs Jason Brilz · Apr 11

SUBvs Ryan Bader · Jan 13

latest

Alexander GustafssonL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17

KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vladimir MatyushenkoMetricAlexander Gustafsson

1.90

Strikes / min

4.03

1.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

59%

Strike defense

51%

3.25

TDs / 15 min

1.53

70%

Takedown defense

83%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.28evenly matched on net striking+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vladimir MatyushenkoAlexander Gustafsson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vladimir Matyushenko(6 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -78.6|Blue +78.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vladimir MatyushenkoTargetAlexander Gustafsson

By target zone

57% acc · 80%

Head

41% acc · 70%

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 10%

Leg

67% acc · 20%

By position

63% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 60%

Clinch

Ground

67% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vladimir Matyushenko rounds

even

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

Round 1Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 8

Sig Strikes

10 / 21

62%

Sig Str %

47%

7 / 11

Total Strikes

14 / 26

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexander Gustafsson	10 / 21	14 / 26	0 / 0	0
1	Vladimir Matyushenko	5 / 8	7 / 11	0 / 0	0

Vladimir Matyushenko

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17