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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tracy Cortez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1484

Viviane AraujovsTracy CortezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Saturday, June 28, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tracy Cortez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupViviane Araujo: Well-roundedvsTracy Cortez: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tracy Cortez wins(81.0%)

Actual result: Tracy Cortez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tracy Cortez at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tracy Cortez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Viviane Araujo has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Viviane Araujo

Red Corner

Tracy Cortez

Blue Corner

+176

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1497

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Viviane Araujo

oldest →

vs Alexa Grasso · Oct 22

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 23

vs Jennifer Maia · Oct 23

vs Natalia Silva · Feb 24

vs Karine Silva · Nov 24

latest

Tracy CortezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Melissa Gatto · May 22

vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Sep 23

vs Rose Namajunas · Jul 24

SUBvs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 25

DECvs Wang Cong · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Viviane AraujoMetricTracy Cortez

3.84

Strikes / min

3.86

4.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

55%

Strike defense

57%

1.72

TDs / 15 min

2.15

75%

Takedown defense

59%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.99Δ 1.84 — meaningful gap+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Viviane AraujoTracy Cortez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Viviane Araujo(10 fights)Tracy Cortez(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.4|Blue -13.4

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Viviane AraujoTargetTracy Cortez

By target zone

36% acc · 73%

Head

65% acc · 82%

100% acc · 14%

Body

57% acc · 12%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

57% acc · 6%

By position

40% acc · 86%

Distance

45% acc · 37%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

40% acc · 3%

Ground

87% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Viviane Araujo rounds

even

Tracy Cortez rounds

Round 1Tracy Cortez edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:43

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:52Control

Round 2Tracy Cortez edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:15Control

Round 3Tracy Cortez edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 51

Sig Strikes

65 / 103

44.7%

Sig Str %

65.3%

39 / 69

Total Strikes

102 / 143

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 5

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:43

Ctrl Time

8:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tracy Cortez	15 / 20	23 / 28	1 / 2	1
1	Viviane Araujo	5 / 13	15 / 24	0 / 0	0
2	Tracy Cortez	20 / 43	25 / 49	1 / 2	0
2	Viviane Araujo	12 / 29	17 / 34	0 / 0	0
3	Tracy Cortez	30 / 40	54 / 66	1 / 1	0
3	Viviane Araujo	5 / 9	7 / 11	0 / 0	0

Viviane Araujo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights13

Tracy Cortez

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights9