Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Natalia Silva won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1550

Viviane AraujovsNatalia SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Saturday, February 3, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Natalia Silva won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupViviane Araujo: Well-roundedvsNatalia Silva: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Natalia Silva wins(68.7%)

Actual result: Natalia Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Natalia Silva at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Natalia Silva enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Natalia Silva has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Natalia Silva has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Natalia Silva (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Viviane Araujo

Red Corner

Natalia Silva

Blue Corner

+270

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-340

(77%)

1497

Elo

1550

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'4"

Height

5'4"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Viviane Araujo

oldest →

vs Alexa Grasso · Oct 22

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 23

vs Jennifer Maia · Oct 23

vs Karine Silva · Nov 24

vs Tracy Cortez · Jun 25

latest

Natalia SilvaW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Victoria Leonardo · May 23

vs Andrea Lee · Aug 23

vs Jessica Andrade · Sep 24

vs Alexa Grasso · May 25

vs Rose Namajunas · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Viviane AraujoMetricNatalia Silva

3.84

Strikes / min

4.81

4.83

Strikes absorbed / min

2.36

55%

Strike defense

66%

1.72

TDs / 15 min

0.43

75%

Takedown defense

90%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.99Δ 3.44 — meaningful gap+2.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Viviane AraujoNatalia Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Viviane Araujo(10 fights)Natalia Silva(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -53.0|Blue +53.0

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Viviane AraujoTargetNatalia Silva

By target zone

34% acc · 77%

Head

23% acc · 63%

33% acc · 4%

Body

50% acc · 21%

83% acc · 19%

Leg

67% acc · 16%

By position

38% acc · 96%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Viviane Araujo rounds

even

Natalia Silva rounds

Round 1Viviane Araujo edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control3:31

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:25

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Natalia Silva edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:05

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 67

Sig Strikes

38 / 128

41.3%

Sig Str %

29%

63 / 110

Total Strikes

65 / 157

1 / 9

TDs

0 / 1

8.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Natalia Silva	8 / 32	16 / 40	0 / 1
1	Viviane Araujo	8 / 15	36 / 43	1 / 4
2	Natalia Silva	12 / 38	22 / 48	0 / 0
2	Viviane Araujo	9 / 21	18 / 35	0 / 3
3	Natalia Silva	18 / 58	27 / 69	0 / 0
3	Viviane Araujo	9 / 31	9 / 32	0 / 2

Viviane Araujo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights13

Natalia Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8