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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Viviane Araujo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1495

Viviane AraujovsKarine SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Saturday, November 16, 2024New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Viviane Araujo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupViviane Araujo: Well-roundedvsKarine Silva: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Karine Silva wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Viviane Araujo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karine Silva at -290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Viviane Araujo has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Viviane Araujo

Red Corner

Karine Silva

Blue Corner

+235

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-290

(74%)

1497

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Viviane AraujoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alexa Grasso · Oct 22

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 23

vs Jennifer Maia · Oct 23

vs Natalia Silva · Feb 24

vs Tracy Cortez · Jun 25

latest

Karine SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Maryna Moroz · Aug 23

vs Ariane da Silva · Apr 24

vs Dione Barbosa · Aug 25

vs Maycee Barber · Dec 25

DECvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Viviane AraujoMetricKarine Silva

3.84

Strikes / min

2.24

4.83

Strikes absorbed / min

2.74

55%

Strike defense

52%

1.72

TDs / 15 min

1.93

75%

Takedown defense

26%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.99evenly matched on net striking-0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Viviane AraujoKarine Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Viviane Araujo(10 fights)Karine Silva(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Viviane AraujoTargetKarine Silva

By target zone

49% acc · 71%

Head

31% acc · 45%

80% acc · 8%

Body

53% acc · 17%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

73% acc · 38%

By position

54% acc · 85%

Distance

38% acc · 78%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

85% acc · 19%

75% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Viviane Araujo rounds

even

Karine Silva rounds

Round 1Karine Silva edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Karine Silva edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:04

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:37Control

Round 3Viviane Araujo edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns3

Control1:21

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 85

Sig Strikes

58 / 132

56%

Sig Str %

51.3%

105 / 152

Total Strikes

76 / 155

3 / 3

TDs

1 / 7

100%

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:25

Ctrl Time

3:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Karine Silva	22 / 65	22 / 65	0 / 0	0
1	Viviane Araujo	17 / 30	20 / 33	0 / 0	0
2	Karine Silva	11 / 15	16 / 20	1 / 4	1
2	Viviane Araujo	14 / 25	49 / 64	0 / 0	1
3	Karine Silva	25 / 52	38 / 70	0 / 3	0
3	Viviane Araujo	17 / 30	36 / 55	3 / 3	0

Viviane Araujo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights13

Karine Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7