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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Vitor Petrino won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1543

Elo1482

Vitor PetrinovsThomas PetersenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Saturday, October 11, 2025Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Vitor Petrino won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:26

Style matchupVitor Petrino: WrestlervsThomas Petersen: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Vitor Petrino wins(70.3%)

Actual result: Vitor Petrino wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vitor Petrino at -295 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Thomas Petersen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Petrino

Red Corner

Thomas Petersen

Blue Corner

-295

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1543

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor PetrinoW2 streak

oldest →

vs Tyson Pedro · Mar 24

SUBvs Anthony Smith · May 24

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Dec 24

SUBvs Austen Lane · Jul 25

vs Steven Asplund · Mar 26

latest

Thomas Petersen

oldest →

vs Mohammed Usman · Jul 24

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Feb 25

vs Don'Tale Mayes · May 25

DECvs Guilherme Pat · Apr 26

SUBvs Valter Walker · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor PetrinoMetricThomas Petersen

3.24

Strikes / min

3.10

2.71

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

51%

Strike defense

54%

2.60

TDs / 15 min

3.01

79%

Takedown defense

87%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53evenly matched on net striking+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vitor PetrinoThomas Petersen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vitor Petrino(9 fights)Thomas Petersen(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +61.5|Blue -61.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor PetrinoTargetThomas Petersen

By target zone

54% acc · 81%

Head

28% acc · 44%

71% acc · 16%

Body

90% acc · 56%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

45% acc · 42%

Distance

45% acc · 81%

75% acc · 29%

Clinch

50% acc · 19%

69% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vitor Petrino rounds

even

Thomas Petersen rounds

Round 1Vitor Petrino edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:42

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:20

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 3Vitor Petrino edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 54

Sig Strikes

16 / 35

60.3%

Sig Str %

55.3%

33 / 61

Total Strikes

41 / 62

1 / 6

TDs

0 / 8

16.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:03

Ctrl Time

2:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thomas Petersen	1 / 5	22 / 27	0 / 6
1	Vitor Petrino	13 / 20	15 / 27	1 / 3
2	Thomas Petersen	13 / 28	17 / 33	0 / 2
2	Vitor Petrino	14 / 28	14 / 28	0 / 3
3	Thomas Petersen	2 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 0
3	Vitor Petrino	4 / 6	4 / 6	0 / 0

Vitor Petrino

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Thomas Petersen

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7