Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Vitor Petrino won · SUB R3

Elo1543

Elo1489

Vitor PetrinovsMarcin PrachnioUFC Prediction Result

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, July 8, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vitor Petrino won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:42

Style matchupVitor Petrino: WrestlervsMarcin Prachnio: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Vitor Petrino wins(79.3%)

Actual result: Vitor Petrino wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vitor Petrino at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vitor Petrino enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Vitor Petrino has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Vitor Petrino has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Petrino

Red Corner

Marcin Prachnio

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1543

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor PetrinoW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Smith · May 24

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Dec 24

SUBvs Austen Lane · Jul 25

KOvs Thomas Petersen · Oct 25

vs Steven Asplund · Mar 26

latest

Marcin PrachnioL2 streak

oldest →

vs Philipe Lins · Apr 22

vs William Knight · Feb 23

vs Devin Clark · Feb 24

SUBvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jul 24

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor PetrinoMetricMarcin Prachnio

3.24

Strikes / min

5.52

2.71

Strikes absorbed / min

3.15

51%

Strike defense

54%

2.60

TDs / 15 min

0.14

79%

Takedown defense

53%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53Δ 1.84 — meaningful gap+2.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vitor PetrinoMarcin Prachnio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vitor Petrino(9 fights)Marcin Prachnio(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +54.2|Blue -54.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor PetrinoTargetMarcin Prachnio

By target zone

47% acc · 73%

Head

46% acc · 45%

90% acc · 20%

Body

84% acc · 38%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

41% acc · 55%

Distance

56% acc · 75%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

93% acc · 25%

86% acc · 43%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vitor Petrino rounds

even

Marcin Prachnio rounds

Round 1Marcin Prachnio edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control2:21

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Vitor Petrino edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control4:38

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Vitor Petrino edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:40

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 81

Sig Strikes

55 / 88

57.3%

Sig Str %

55%

72 / 111

Total Strikes

147 / 185

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

83.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:39

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcin Prachnio	32 / 44	66 / 78	0 / 0	0
1	Vitor Petrino	16 / 33	20 / 37	2 / 4	0
2	Marcin Prachnio	2 / 5	56 / 64	0 / 1	0
2	Vitor Petrino	11 / 15	30 / 35	1 / 1	1
3	Marcin Prachnio	21 / 39	25 / 43	0 / 0	0
3	Vitor Petrino	17 / 33	22 / 39	1 / 1	1

Vitor Petrino

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Marcin Prachnio

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11